The Nevada and (especially) South Carolina effect

From PRSSA

By THOMAS HARTWELL

My predictions have begun to go awry. Nevada and South Carolina -- for Democrats and Republicans respectively -- took me by surprise and have forced me to come to terms with what might be a Trump Republican nominee.

Let's start with Nevada, because there were far fewer surprises. Over the course of a handful of weeks, Bernie Sanders closed a substantial poll gap on Hillary Clinton in Nevada. While Clinton still took Nevada by a margin of about 5 percent, Sanders showed that he can surprise and change minds in the end days before polling. This could help the Sanders campaign salvage some of the expected losses in South Carolina, where Clinton is heavily favored. Sanders' win of the Latino vote in Nevada surprised many, including myself, and it bodes well for him going into Super Tuesday, but in a South Carolina Democratic primary where up to 55 percent of voters are black, Sanders will need to do some pretty impressive campaigning over the next week. Right now, Clinton is showing 57 percent to Bernie's 32 in South Carolina polls.

All this being said, Bernie isn't out of the race yet. The delegates between the two candidates are split pretty evenly. If Sanders can do well on Super Tuesday, it will be huge for him. Where Sanders is hurting is in the super delegate pledges -- he has secured only 19 to Hillary's 451 of the super delegates.

Now, the South Carolina Republican primary had some twists and turns -- I went to bed thinking I knew what the outcome was and woke up to new results. Trump won the state by 10 percent and took all 50 delegates, which was an enormous win and destroyed my prediction credibility. To my credit, though, when I predicted a Cruz win in South Carolina earlier this campaign season, he led in the evangelical arena AND he was favored to win in the state. But, not to my credit, Cruz didn't just lose, he placed third (that was the result I woke up to). Everything changes from my original predictions from here. Rubio beat Cruz in South Carolina and, even if only by 0.2 percent, this is a great sign for Rubio and a not so great one for Cruz. Cruz is being absolutely pounded for running what the other candidates are calling a dishonest campaign, and this amount of negative attention is catapulting Rubio into the Republican spotlight as the most able Republican to beat Trump. I also expect him to pick up a good amount of Bush money and support after Bush's campaign ended Saturday. Carson and Kasich have looked to Super Tuesday and only have a fool's hope to stay in the race after then.

So, from here, this is my prediction:

Democrats: Hillary wins South Carolina and most of the states on Super Tuesday. She goes on to win the Democratic nomination.

Republicans: Trump wins Nevada by his normal 10 percent-ish margin, Rubio and Cruz vie for second, but Rubio pulls it out -- this time by around 3 percent. Carson comes in last, and quite possibly drops before Super Tuesday if the numbers are low enough. Trump does well on Super Tuesday because of the split between Rubio and Cruz for second, BUT HERE'S THE THING: My prediction is also that Trump can't get a majority of the delegates and the Republican nomination goes to a convention. (Pretty please, America)