Republican Party Cage Match: Contested Convention

By THOMAS HARTWELL

As the race for the Republican nomination continues on its wrecking-ball-esque path of destruction and embarrassment, the possibility of a contested convention has begun to lean to the side of probability.

Political cartoon by Gary Varvel. From http://townhall.com/political-cartoons/2016/01/18

In the midst of the president's historic trip to Cuba, the FBI's breaking into the San Bernadino shooter's phone, the veto of Georgia's "religious exemption" bill and several terrorist attacks around the globe, the Republicans have chosen to continue the blood bath that is repeated stabs at each other's personal lives, track records and even wives' track records. Republican voters and Independents alike have voiced increasing frustration with the "play the player, not the ball" tactics, and Democrats have to be looking on rubbing their hands together in wait for November.

Even the, thus far, unshakable Trump supporter base has begun to show signs of plateau or even decline. As has been recorded since the beginning of the campaign season, Trump's unfavorable rating continues to best his favorable, but it has grown even further. His is now the highest ever recorded, according to a Gallup poll. This has further excited establishment Republicans and the Never Trump movement on the left and the right in their crusade to force the nomination to a contested convention.

From the Associated Press

Trump currently has 739 delegates to Cruz's 465. While the difference at first glance may seem like a lot, it's simply not, and Cruz has a trick up his sleeve. With the same organization and "ground game" that won Cruz several Republican caucuses across the country, the campaign is collecting extra "unpledged" delegates, a tactic over which Trump has threatened suit -- so unlike him. Trump's campaign has since picked up the strategy as part of a plan to block the contested convention. Cruz's ground game has the potential to close the gap on Trump, though, and with diminishing support in a race becoming increasingly future-sighted, Cruz might be able to make a case for himself at a contested convention.

BUT... would the establishment rather put Cruz, a third party not already running or even Kasich up for nomination? Here's the simplest answer I can give: I dunno -- not right now at least. While Cruz is the other front-runner and the establishment really doesn't like Trump, they're not a huge fan of Cruz either. The Texas senator doesn't have many friends in Congress and tends not to play well with others. He's a conservative with "give me conservatism or give me death" tendencies, which would usually sound great for Republicans, but since he's really in this for himself and not necessarily the party, the fact that he doesn't always like to go with status quo turns a lot of his colleagues off. I think there's a good chance of a Romney-like nomination out of a contested convention, but what I think should happen is a Kasich nomination.

Kasich is a moderate Republican who, thus far, has been flying pretty low-profile and staying out of the Republican Hunger Games. While he started out as a "nobody," voters have been taking notice. His moderate-ness could be the best weapon in a fight against Hillary in November, and his mix of establishment history and "just a regular guy" platform could serve him well in a general election, too. Interestingly, national polls often show Kasich and sometimes Cruz -- but not Trump -- beating Hillary in a general election in November, but at this point, take those polls with a grain of salt -- it's still pretty early.

Oh, and hey, Democrat voters, while you're probably sitting back watching this Republican debacle as a satire, you might start thinking about the internal conflict that may arise between a Trump nomination, which would likely end in a Clinton victory but is still downright terrifying, or a nominee who isn't Trump, which could mean a Democrat's demise.