The Nevada and (especially) South Carolina effect

From PRSSA

By THOMAS HARTWELL

My predictions have begun to go awry. Nevada and South Carolina -- for Democrats and Republicans respectively -- took me by surprise and have forced me to come to terms with what might be a Trump Republican nominee.

Let's start with Nevada, because there were far fewer surprises. Over the course of a handful of weeks, Bernie Sanders closed a substantial poll gap on Hillary Clinton in Nevada. While Clinton still took Nevada by a margin of about 5 percent, Sanders showed that he can surprise and change minds in the end days before polling. This could help the Sanders campaign salvage some of the expected losses in South Carolina, where Clinton is heavily favored. Sanders' win of the Latino vote in Nevada surprised many, including myself, and it bodes well for him going into Super Tuesday, but in a South Carolina Democratic primary where up to 55 percent of voters are black, Sanders will need to do some pretty impressive campaigning over the next week. Right now, Clinton is showing 57 percent to Bernie's 32 in South Carolina polls.

All this being said, Bernie isn't out of the race yet. The delegates between the two candidates are split pretty evenly. If Sanders can do well on Super Tuesday, it will be huge for him. Where Sanders is hurting is in the super delegate pledges -- he has secured only 19 to Hillary's 451 of the super delegates.

Now, the South Carolina Republican primary had some twists and turns -- I went to bed thinking I knew what the outcome was and woke up to new results. Trump won the state by 10 percent and took all 50 delegates, which was an enormous win and destroyed my prediction credibility. To my credit, though, when I predicted a Cruz win in South Carolina earlier this campaign season, he led in the evangelical arena AND he was favored to win in the state. But, not to my credit, Cruz didn't just lose, he placed third (that was the result I woke up to). Everything changes from my original predictions from here. Rubio beat Cruz in South Carolina and, even if only by 0.2 percent, this is a great sign for Rubio and a not so great one for Cruz. Cruz is being absolutely pounded for running what the other candidates are calling a dishonest campaign, and this amount of negative attention is catapulting Rubio into the Republican spotlight as the most able Republican to beat Trump. I also expect him to pick up a good amount of Bush money and support after Bush's campaign ended Saturday. Carson and Kasich have looked to Super Tuesday and only have a fool's hope to stay in the race after then.

So, from here, this is my prediction:

Democrats: Hillary wins South Carolina and most of the states on Super Tuesday. She goes on to win the Democratic nomination.

Republicans: Trump wins Nevada by his normal 10 percent-ish margin, Rubio and Cruz vie for second, but Rubio pulls it out -- this time by around 3 percent. Carson comes in last, and quite possibly drops before Super Tuesday if the numbers are low enough. Trump does well on Super Tuesday because of the split between Rubio and Cruz for second, BUT HERE'S THE THING: My prediction is also that Trump can't get a majority of the delegates and the Republican nomination goes to a convention. (Pretty please, America)

The New Hampshire effect

From New Hampshire public radio

By THOMAS HARTWELL

More records were broken Tuesday when the presidential candidates made their way to New Hampshire. While the Democrat's voter record was not broken, they contributed to the overall high voter turnout of 538,094, edging out the 2008 total voter turnout by around 11,000 ballots cast. The Republican voter turnout shattered previous records; 284, 120 voters cast ballots -- an increase of nearly 12,000 on the Republican side alone over the previous record-setting election (248,475).

There were a number of surprises in New Hampshire. Most shocking to me was Kasich's taking second place and receiving almost 16 percent of the Republican vote. Kasich came off of a debate performance where he looked more comfortable than previously and, apparently, where he impressed potential voters. I was surprised to see this large of a jump in his numbers, even while refusing to use negative ads against the other candidates -- a tactic which has proven very successful in New Hampshire in the past. Kasich needed this revitalization to his campaign after a not-so-strong debate performance on January 28 and a sheer beat down in the Iowa caucuses.

The amount of votes that Trump received was staggering to me, too. I knew going in that he was likely to win New Hampshire, as up to 34 percent of New Hampshire voters register as Independent and are, therefore, more likely to vote away from the "politician choices." What I was not prepared for was Trump's capturing of more than a third of New Hampshire (35 percent). Trump received 10 delegates to the next nearest candidate's four, so it was quite a victory for him... *sigh*

More surprises: Rubio dropped into fifth place, below Bush, who previously received only 3 percent of the vote in Iowa. Bush, like Kasich, desperately needed this attention from voters, but unlike Kasich, has remained extremely positive about his campaign -- easy to do when you have the amount of financial support he does, I guess. Rubio hasn't been doing so hot lately. He's been called "robotic" and "too rehearsed" after, in a couple cases, he has repeated almost exactly the same words several times in speeches. Rubio said it himself, he didn't do well when it mattered leading up to New Hampshire. Cruz did well to fly under the radar and focus his energy on South Carolina, amid some accusations of illegal campaign activity, taking third. I expect him to win there, as he has captured the evangelical vote for the most part. Christie and Fiorina did not receive enough support to justify continuing their campaigns, and as expected suspended them in the following days. If Carson has another performance like that of the 2 percent he earned in New Hampshire, he could be next.

In short, the Republicans' race could turn into a 2-person one. If Cruz does as well as many expect in South Carolina, he and the Trumpster could simply be too far out in front to catch.

As far as the Democratic vote goes... well, what'd I tell you? Bernie received a whopping 60 percent of the vote to Hillary's 38. This is due, mostly, to the state's large number of Independents (Bernie is registered Independent as a Vermont senator). Bernie received 15 delegates to Hillary's 9, but the two are tied going forward, as six out of eight of the "super delegates" have declared for Clinton. I expect that, in South Carolina, Sanders will not be able to overcome the large discrepancy in the African-American vote and will lose, potentially big, to Clinton.

Who won the debate?

By THOMAS HARTWELL

Thursday's debate harbored one of the first true opportunities for Republican presidential candidates to voice their stances on debated issues, sans Trump, after his decision to boycott. I think it important to mention that Fox's moderators and the candidates themselves, for the most part, did a good job of not mentioning Trump -- thank you, Fox. The network also broke new ground by teaming up with Google for the sake of analytics. The debate included stats and graphics showing the top search results and increased percentage of certain keywords on Google during the airing of the debate.

As we all know, of all the candidates on stage, Cruz was the leader going into Thursday's airing. The debate opened with a quick mention of Trump by Megyn Kelly, the moderator with whom Trump had "beef." Let's all take a moment to address "the elephant not in the room," said Kelly. Shortly thereafter, Cruz opened by calling "everyone on this stage... stupid, fat and ugly." He did well to hold his composure and his punchline to let what he had said stun viewers before concluding, "Now that we've gotten the Donald Trump portion out of the way..." (see the video here).

Claims of "winners" of the Iowa debate are scattered throughout the Internet, and every candidate's official Twitter page claims "so-and-so won the debate, so here's a discount on so-and-so merchandise." That being said, here's my take on each candidate's strong points as well as who won the debate -- I'll understand if you take it with a grain of salt, and no discounts... sorry.

TED CRUZ:

Cruz did just okay in Thursday's debate. He was attacked on changes of stance and policy quite a bit, as expected, but handled himself well, for the most part. Cruz did well to give the conservative audience what they wanted to hear as far as his healthcare plan saying, should he be elected to office, he would "repeal every word of ObamaCare." His discussion of immigration was smart, too; he cited his collaboration with Iowa's own Rep. Steve King for the brainstorming of the plan. His strongest point in the night, and the one that seemed to score him the most points with the crowd, was his promise to rebuild the military and "utterly crush" the Islamic State, a point he revisited in his closing statements. The election boils down to one question, he said, who do you trust to defend America?

What he didn't seem to have enough of Thursday night was confidence. His stance on ethanol subsidies had been one of much attention in Iowa -- many farmers are unhappy with the idea of no more subsidies -- and he was given a chance to clarify. While I believe he clarified the "why," I still don't know how much Iowan farmers like the idea of giving up the extra cash on their already pretty "cash-bringing" crop. He participated in a rather heated skirmish with moderator Chris Wallace, which didn't really go his way, made some jokes that didn't really seem to connect with the audience and was even booed once. At times he looked panicked and was all-around, just outshone. Overall, Ted, 6/10.

BEN CARSON:

While Carson was quite relevant at the start of the 2016 campaign, his popularity has waned vastly. It was Carson's religious basis and stories of his road to salvation that won many conservatives over early on, but as his campaign road has become more and more rocky, including the recent death of one of his volunteers, his spotlight and his support have dwindled.

His night on the debate stage seemed to speak to his difficult few weeks. Carson did not receive many direct questions, challenges or other opportunities to speak. When he was asked questions, they seemed, in my opinion, more challenging to answer than the other candidates'. He did, however, touch on a couple of popular conservative notions, which I will applaud him for: the need for less political correctness and the importance of powerful military action. His strongest point in the debate came toward the end, when he expressed America's need for military exercises all around Russia in response to Putin's aggressive tendencies. For your push for a bigger military and your patience with lack of talking time, Carson, 5/10.

JOHN KASICH:

Kasich seemed the most wholesome of the bunch Thursday night. He slung no ill words and seemed to have no ill will toward any of the other candidates, but that may have been his problem. Kasich hasn't really been aggressive enough this campaign season -- I suppose that comes with never having been a front-runner. For what it's worth, though, I believe his level head and his patience for a debate that didn't seem to welcome him was refreshing, and I think he surprised some people -- not nearly enough, but some.

Kasich didn't get to talk much either, but when he did, he spoke with confidence. His high points were a little moderate-sounding -- maybe that's why he's not hitting it too big with the conservatives. One of the best quotes of the night, I think, was his: "The mentally ill and drug addicted of this country have been stepped on for too long." He also scored some extra points with a call to action to the leaders of Flint, Michigan. All-around, your demeanor and holistic approach to Thursday's debate gets you a 5/10, Kasich.

RAND PAUL:

Is it just me, or are even Republicans leaning a little more to the middle these days? Rand Paul rallied quite a bit of talk with his many calls for racial equality and justice reform. He was calm, cool, collected and very well-spoken and well-prepared. He was first to go on the offense, attacking Ted Cruz on his voting against the "Audit the Fed Bill," which called for more transparency in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Paul also pointed out the much larger percentage of young African-American males in prison versus young white males for similar crimes, citing many of the country's hot spots for racial cases against the state over the past decade. While he struggled to answer the question of abortion in a way that satisfied both the typical conservative response, "pro-life in all cases," and what opinion I think is his own, (more pro-choice leaning), I think this was his best debate performance, and I think he'll see a slight rise in his poll numbers. For your confidence, your sticking to your own beliefs and your call for equality and justice reform, Paul, 7/10.

CHRIS CHRISTIE:

Christie didn't win, but he scored lots of points in my book with his use of humor (the points are imaginary, they don't really count for anything). He poked fun at the other candidates, at Donald Trump, at times, himself and even seemed to stand smugly at the podium. His main focus was letting the crowd know that he, and only he, could and would beat Hillary and that terrorism was the number one threat to Americans. He fended off the occasional, "Well, what about the bridge thing?" from the other candidates and closed with a promise of "crushing ISIS," a common theme of the night. His best moment, though, was when he was asked if he could name one thing the government did right now that it shouldn't do at all. He stood at the podium leaning heavily to one side on his elbow, he paused and said, "Yes... You want one?" The crowd loved it. His example, funding of Planned Parenthood, also scored him some points with the pro-lifers.

Christie didn't impress me with his answer to a question about racial profiling, though. He stumbled, stuttered and came up with an answer that sounded a bit like, "well it just isn't" when asked whether calling the authorities on "suspicious-acting Muslims" was an example of profiling. So, his humor couldn't totally save him, but I would say Christie gave the viewers a good time and did well to represent himself as a candidate -- so, Christie, 7/10 for you.

JEB(!) BUSH:

Jeb has been called low-energy, a loser and a nobody (most of these by Trump), he's had to settle for an endorsement from only his mother and his numbers continue to drop -- nationally he's at about 2% -- but Thursday night, he came prepared. I wish more of you out there liked him, but anyway, this isn't about that.

Bush was friendly when he should have been, aggressive when appropriate and worked in just the right amount of humor, even saying at one point, "I actually miss Donald Trump." Bush called for better care for veterans, laid out his immigration plan and addressed and offered a solution to Islamic extremism without playing into the fear-based "ban all Muslims" stance, for which more than a few have been calling. His highlights were his suggestion of focus on "Islamic terrorism" instead of "all Muslim-Americans" and his stance, though he had to defend a change over the years, on immigrants' path to citizenship. Maybe it's because he knows he's out of the race at this point, maybe it's because he has a fool's hope, but it seemed nothing could faze Jeb on that stage. Though I don't think his poll numbers will climb, I believe Bush was one of the winners of Thursday's debate. 9/10, Jeb.


MARCO RUBIO:

What can I say? Rubio surprised me. There's been a lot of talk about Rubio's looks, his charisma, his charm and his age (even though he's 44, only a year younger than Ted Cruz), and how all those things could work to his advantage in his campaign if he just really turned them on -- well, he turned them on. Rubio came out swinging, Thursday. He was aggressive, confident, consistent and fearless in his responses. He was quick to "expose the lies" in the other candidates' attacks on his policies, something many other candidates seemed to forget they could do, and in many cases, he turned the question of consistency on his attackers. The majority of his policy strengths for the night came on the topic of religion and the military (I would say, the two smartest choices for a conservative crowd). But one of the strongest quotes of the night came from him too: "Hillary doesn't want to run against me, but I can't wait to run against her."

Thursday night showcased a Rubio the likes of which voters have never seen. I would say Rubio was easily the other winner of the debate, and with a front-runner spot still sort of in reach for him, I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign caught some wind. Good job Rubio, 9/10.